Last week, steel futures fell after the overall surge, spot market weakness was obvious, the market has expectations for winter storage, but the performance is generally wait-and-see, cautious, pre-holiday prices is difficult to set off waves, mainly weak narrow shocks.
In recent days, steel futures once rebounded to drive spot prices up, which is mainly related to the central bank's reduction of deposit reserve ratio, capital development and other short-term news stimulus. However, at the end of recent years, demand downstream of terminals is sluggish, especially in the northern region. After a short period of small rebound, steel prices have returned to a weak oscillation pattern. In the background of low demand, the market expectation is not big. At present, only winter storage can bring some expectations to the market. From the perspective of market factors alone, it is difficult for the steel market to make great waves because of the interweaving of multi-empty influence.
On the supply side, due to environmental protection overhaul, the restart time of some steel mills in Tangshan area is undetermined, and short-term output is difficult to fluctuate greatly. At present, the stock of steel mills and social stock have increased, but compared with the same period, the stock of steel mills and social stock are still at a low level, so the pressure of steel mills is not big, and the steel price is relatively strong. From the point of view of the accumulative speed of stocks, the latest data show that the increasing speed of stocks is still flat, especially in steel mills, stocks have declined to a certain extent, steel stocks have declined and social stocks have increased, which may be related to the fact that some steel traders have already started winter storage operations.
Recently, there has been news of production reduction in many parts of the country. Some steel mills in Northeast China and North China have introduced winter storage policies. As the scope of production reduction has expanded, steel mills have expanded from North China to Central China, as well as Jiangsu and Anhui in East China. The overall willingness of steel mills to bid is strong. However, compared with previous years, the market for winter storage policy recognition is not very high, coupled with the price trend is not clear, steel traders have fewer large quantities of winter storage. From last week's market turnover, due to the impact of the shutdown in the northern region, the turnover has not improved, and the situation in the southern market is not optimistic. It is expected that the volume will gradually decrease in the later period.
Due to the poor performance of national demand, market expectations are generally not optimistic, and winter storage is also cautious. In the absence of demand support, pre-holiday prices continue to rise without more power. However, due to the low supply, it is unrealistic for steel prices to fall sharply. It is expected that the steel price before the festival will be mostly narrow fluctuations.
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